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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 4h 29m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 5h 20m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:01DL 2170 6h 37m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543 49m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 3h 54m 89% 80%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460 5h 56m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → STL 10:22 → CLT 13:19AA 2497 3h 28m Charlotte CLT 16:47 → VPS 17:26AA 5201 · flown by PSA 7h 04m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → STL 07:07 → DFW 09:06AA 537 3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501 7h 36m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → STL 15:41 → DFW 17:42AA 1363 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:06 → VPS 21:11AA 1201 5h 30m 87% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON