Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 3766 at 12:49, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3766 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STS 12:49	DFW 18:24	19%	6%	1.0%	95%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Santa Rosa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STS 13:14 → PHX 15:23AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	1h 46m Phoenix	PHX 17:09 → DFW 21:38AA 2210	6h 24m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	STS 11:04 → SAN 12:50AS 3047 · flown by SkyWest	1h 57m San Diego	SAN 14:47 → DFW 19:39AS 777	6h 35m	96%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STS 13:14 → PHX 15:23AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	52m Phoenix	PHX 16:15 → DFW 20:53AA 1663	5h 39m	59%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON