Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 3221 at 14:51, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 3221 SkyWest	STS 14:51	PDX 16:42	9%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 2331 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	STS 19:03	PDX 20:36	49%	21%	2.1%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	STS 06:26 → SAN 08:15AS 3315 · flown by SkyWest	2h 49m San Diego	SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576	7h 17m	97%	74%
Alaska Details →	STS 11:04 → SAN 12:50AS 3047 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m San Diego	SAN 16:00 → PDX 18:36AS 486	7h 32m	99%	71%
Alaska Details →	STS 17:31 → SEA 19:25AS 1322	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	3h 51m	75%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON