Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4134 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4134 STS 06:02 → SAN 07:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3401 STS 16:51 → SAN 18:37 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4134 Southwest	STS 06:02	SAN 07:48	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 3315 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 06:26	SAN 08:15	15%	7%	3.4%	88%
AS 3047 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 11:04	SAN 12:50	21%	11%	2.0%	60%
WN 3401 Southwest	STS 16:51	SAN 18:37	25%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 2257 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	STS 17:56	SAN 19:35	58%	18%	3.8%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON