Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 1331 Alaska	STS 07:06	SEA 08:59	21%	5%	1.5%	no record
AS 1322 Alaska Flight history →	STS 17:31	SEA 19:25	25%	7%	1.1%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	STS 08:30 → SNA 10:12AS 3287 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Santa Ana	SNA 12:05 → SEA 14:54AS 548	6h 24m	90%	69%
Alaska Details →	STS 11:04 → SAN 12:50AS 3047 · flown by SkyWest	2h 02m San Diego	SAN 14:52 → SEA 17:41AS 685	6h 37m	96%	69%
Alaska Details →	STS 13:06 → LAS 14:44AS 2459 · flown by Horizon	1h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 16:24 → SEA 18:57AS 749	5h 51m	98%	67%
Alaska Details →	STS 15:06 → BUR 16:43AS 3213 · flown by SkyWest	50m Burbank	BUR 17:33 → SEA 20:09AS 537	5h 03m	87%	62%
Alaska Details →	STS 06:26 → SAN 08:15AS 3315 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m San Diego	SAN 09:34 → SEA 12:23AS 609	5h 57m	91%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	STS 19:03 → PDX 20:36AS 2331 · flown by Horizon	54m Portland	PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon	3h 24m	50%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON