Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 6008 at 15:37, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 6008 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SUN 15:37	LAX 17:14	10%	8%	0.8%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Hailey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SUN 07:20 → SLC 08:27DL 4037 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	6h 07m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SUN 13:10 → SLC 14:21DL 4019 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841	4h 26m	96%	80%
Alaska Details →	SUN 10:20 → SEA 11:14AS 2325 · flown by Horizon	2h 24m Seattle	SEA 13:38 → LAX 16:25AS 696	7h 05m	100%	77%
United Details →	SUN 14:38 → DEN 16:45UA 5268 · flown by SkyWest	50m Denver	DEN 17:35 → LAX 19:01UA 1753	5h 23m	88%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON