tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4635 American flown by Republic Flight history → SYR 10:36 BOS 11:55 9% 4% 1.0% 92%
B6 374 JetBlue Flight history → SYR 09:27 BOS 10:52 10% 6% 1.6% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SYR 06:21 → DTW 07:54DL 2091 2h 11m Detroit DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648 5h 39m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SYR 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 1108 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 6h 45m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SYR 06:00 → IAD 07:28UA 4860 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 07m Dulles IAD 08:35 → BOS 10:20UA 641 4h 20m 90% 79%
AmericanDetails → SYR 06:00 → PHL 07:20AA 6095 · flown by Piedmont 3h 10m Philadelphia PHL 10:30 → BOS 12:03AA 1416 6h 03m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → SYR 15:46 → ATL 18:11DL 2991 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 19:57 → BOS 22:35DL 457 6h 49m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → SYR 08:00 → CLT 10:11AA 1235 2h 28m Charlotte CLT 12:39 → BOS 15:02AA 1140 7h 02m 97% 77%
JetBlueDetails → SYR 06:00 → JFK 07:12B6 1515 2h 47m New York JFK 09:59 → BOS 11:26B6 1018 5h 26m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SYR 05:30 → JFK 06:52DL 5363 · flown by Endeavor 2h 58m New York JFK 09:50 → BOS 11:15DL 5733 · flown by Republic 5h 45m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SYR 06:00 → LGA 07:14DL 5355 · flown by Endeavor 46m New York LGA 08:00 → BOS 09:19DL 5759 · flown by Republic 3h 19m 65% 55%
AmericanDetails → SYR 13:16 → CLT 15:24AA 2730 52m Charlotte CLT 16:16 → BOS 18:39AA 1155 5h 23m 64% 46%
AmericanDetails → SYR 10:47 → PHL 12:04AA 5982 · flown by Piedmont 47m Philadelphia PHL 12:51 → BOS 14:17AA 3186 3h 30m 52% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON