Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 533 at 07:16, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 533 American Flight history →	SYR 07:16	DFW 09:50	8%	3%	1.0%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Syracuse). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SYR 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 1108	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 12m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SYR 15:46 → ATL 18:11DL 2991	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → DFW 22:11DL 3161	7h 25m	98%	83%
American Details →	SYR 08:00 → CLT 10:11AA 1235	2h 48m Charlotte	CLT 12:59 → DFW 14:48AA 1690	7h 48m	98%	82%
United Details →	SYR 06:00 → IAD 07:28UA 4860 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 02m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53UA 2471	5h 53m	90%	82%
Delta Details →	SYR 12:20 → ATL 14:43DL 1375	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → DFW 19:05DL 1827	7h 45m	99%	80%
American Details →	SYR 06:00 → PHL 07:20AA 6095 · flown by Piedmont	3h 24m Philadelphia	PHL 10:44 → DFW 13:09AA 3326	8h 09m	94%	79%
American Details →	SYR 10:36 → BOS 11:55AA 4635 · flown by Republic	1h 16m Boston	BOS 13:11 → DFW 16:24AA 1438	6h 48m	94%	77%
American Details →	SYR 10:47 → PHL 12:04AA 5982 · flown by Piedmont	2h 56m Philadelphia	PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402	8h 03m	96%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SYR 10:30 → IAD 11:55UA 4840 · flown by CommuteAir	46m Dulles	IAD 12:41 → DFW 15:05UA 1564	5h 35m	73%	61%
American Details →	SYR 10:47 → PHL 12:04AA 5982 · flown by Piedmont	48m Philadelphia	PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415	5h 44m	54%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON