Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 3534 at 06:01, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3534 SYR 06:01 → IAD 07:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3534 Republic	SYR 06:01	IAD 07:34	4%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 4505 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 14:40	IAD 16:06	4%	0%	7.7%	96%
UA 4860 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 06:00	IAD 07:28	10%	10%	0.0%	90%
UA 4840 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 10:30	IAD 11:55	10%	7%	3.2%	90%
UA 4853 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 19:52	IAD 21:20	19%	10%	4.0%	81%
UA 4362 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 14:55	IAD 16:23	22%	15%	12.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON