Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 1515 at 06:00, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 1515 SYR 06:00 → JFK 07:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 1515 JetBlue Flight history →	SYR 06:00	JFK 07:12	7%	5%	2.5%	92%
DL 5363 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 05:30	JFK 06:52	10%	6%	5.8%	90%
DL 5436 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 11:21	JFK 12:39	14%	5%	3.8%	86%
DL 5328 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 16:57	JFK 18:25	19%	10%	5.3%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON