Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 2525 at 07:19, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2525 Delta	SYR 07:19	MSP 08:48	6%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Syracuse). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SYR 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 1108	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	6h 30m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SYR 06:21 → DTW 07:54DL 2091	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	4h 33m	94%	86%
American Details →	SYR 08:00 → CLT 10:11AA 1235	2h 18m Charlotte	CLT 12:29 → MSP 14:23AA 1671	7h 23m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	SYR 12:20 → ATL 14:43DL 1375	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	6h 58m	98%	84%
United Details →	SYR 06:00 → IAD 07:28UA 4860 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 25m Dulles	IAD 08:53 → MSP 10:47UA 2604	5h 47m	90%	83%
Delta Details →	SYR 15:46 → ATL 18:11DL 2991	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280	6h 52m	97%	82%
American Details →	SYR 13:16 → CLT 15:24AA 2730	3h 49m Charlotte	CLT 19:13 → MSP 21:03AA 2176	8h 47m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	SYR 06:00 → LGA 07:14DL 5355 · flown by Endeavor	3h 56m New York	LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409	8h 10m	96%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON