Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 342 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 342 SYR 06:07 → ORD 07:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3631 SYR 17:01 → ORD 18:09 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 342 United	SYR 06:07	ORD 07:20	11%	4%	1.6%	no record
MQ 3366 Envoy	SYR 06:04	ORD 07:09	13%	4%	2.1%	no record
YX 4648 Republic	SYR 13:06	ORD 14:24	19%	6%	2.5%	no record
OO 5811 SkyWest	SYR 12:39	ORD 13:52	21%	9%	3.4%	no record
UA 1440 United	SYR 17:51	ORD 19:08	22%	8%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3631 Envoy	SYR 17:01	ORD 18:09	28%	9%	2.4%	no record
UA 4600 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 11:56	ORD 13:15	22%	10%	3.4%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON