Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2743 at 05:13 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 2743 TPA 05:13 → ATL 06:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4435 TPA 14:25 → ATL 16:16 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2743 Delta	TPA 05:13	ATL 06:50	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1726 Delta Flight history →	TPA 06:15	ATL 07:50	4%	1%	0.6%	88%
WN 866 Southwest	TPA 08:32	ATL 10:11	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1486 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:30	ATL 09:07	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 744 Delta Flight history →	TPA 08:45	ATL 10:15	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1227 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:14	ATL 12:52	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2605 Delta Flight history →	TPA 10:00	ATL 11:35	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
F9 1853 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 07:00	ATL 09:01	10%	4%	0.9%	74%
DL 1594 Delta Flight history →	TPA 20:02	ATL 21:49	12%	5%	0.7%	71%
DL 1099 Delta Flight history →	TPA 13:44	ATL 15:23	13%	4%	0.7%	82%
DL 1587 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:34	ATL 14:10	14%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 1425 Delta Flight history →	TPA 19:04	ATL 21:04	14%	5%	0.7%	79%
DL 1525 Delta Flight history →	TPA 15:18	ATL 16:54	16%	6%	0.8%	72%
DL 1720 Delta Flight history →	TPA 16:39	ATL 18:16	18%	5%	0.7%	80%
DL 759 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:03	ATL 19:48	19%	6%	0.7%	70%
DL 8883 Delta	TPA 18:58	ATL 20:34	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 2723 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 17:55	ATL 19:42	22%	11%	1.3%	69%
WN 977 Southwest	TPA 18:56	ATL 20:35	23%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 4435 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 14:25	ATL 16:16	23%	12%	1.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON