Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4139 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4139 TPA 06:36 → AUS 08:12 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3062 TPA 18:36 → AUS 20:11 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4139 Southwest	TPA 06:36	AUS 08:12	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4140 Southwest	TPA 10:16	AUS 11:53	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 487 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:44	AUS 14:26	17%	3%	0.7%	83%
OO 3508 SkyWest	TPA 19:01	AUS 20:49	21%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 2132 Southwest	TPA 14:56	AUS 16:33	22%	7%	1.3%	no record
WN 3062 Southwest	TPA 18:36	AUS 20:11	28%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON