Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 443 at 10:16, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 443 Southwest	TPA 10:16	BDL 13:24	9%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082	6h 30m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	3h 27m Detroit	DTW 14:35 → BDL 16:18DL 2814	7h 48m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739	6h 16m	99%	85%
United Details →	TPA 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 2189	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 11:03 → BDL 14:24UA 2195	6h 59m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735	6h 45m	100%	83%
American Details →	TPA 08:36 → CLT 10:25AA 1704	1h 39m Charlotte	CLT 12:04 → BDL 14:17AA 2741	5h 41m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 20:31 → BDL 22:56DL 2765	7h 38m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 13:44 → ATL 15:23DL 1099	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 18:56 → BDL 21:19DL 2504	7h 35m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON