Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 461 at 07:56, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 461 Southwest	TPA 07:56	BHM 08:35	4%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	4h 40m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164	4h 42m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	4h 24m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	6h 08m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 13:44 → ATL 15:23DL 1099	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 19:02 → BHM 19:04DL 3044	6h 20m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	5h 40m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → BHM 17:55DL 1132	6h 21m	99%	87%
American Details →	TPA 14:55 → CLT 16:46AA 2915	3h 13m Charlotte	CLT 19:59 → BHM 20:23AA 5205 · flown by PSA	6h 28m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TPA 16:39 → ATL 18:16DL 1720	46m Atlanta	ATL 19:02 → BHM 19:04DL 3044	3h 25m	72%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON