Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2782 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2782 TPA 06:51 → BNA 07:53 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3639 TPA 18:04 → BNA 19:07 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2782 Southwest	TPA 06:51	BNA 07:53	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4623 Southwest	TPA 08:56	BNA 09:58	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2315 Southwest	TPA 11:01	BNA 12:02	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 506 Southwest	TPA 13:26	BNA 14:27	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3642 Envoy	TPA 12:36	BNA 13:39	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 2364 Southwest	TPA 19:13	BNA 20:14	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3639 Envoy	TPA 18:04	BNA 19:07	24%	7%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON