tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 824 Southwest TPA 06:01 BUF 08:56 2% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 408 Southwest TPA 11:01 BUF 13:56 8% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 4h 56m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 6h 03m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 7h 27m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → TPA 08:36 → CLT 10:25AA 1704 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 13:49 → BUF 15:43AA 2442 7h 07m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 37m Dulles IAD 12:59 → BUF 14:25UA 4335 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 25m 98% 78%
JetBlueDetails → TPA 06:30 → BOS 09:33B6 1192 2h 28m Boston BOS 12:01 → BUF 13:42B6 915 7h 12m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475 3h 38m New York JFK 13:29 → BUF 15:09DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 8h 04m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → TPA 16:06 → PHL 19:00AA 809 3h 20m Philadelphia PHL 22:20 → BUF 23:53AA 5911 · flown by Piedmont 7h 47m 96% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON