Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4725 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4725 TPA 05:16 → BWI 07:53 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1538 TPA 20:09 → BWI 22:59 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4725 Southwest	TPA 05:16	BWI 07:53	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3297 Southwest	TPA 08:56	BWI 11:32	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1072 Southwest	TPA 11:42	BWI 14:19	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4153 Southwest	TPA 17:41	BWI 20:18	14%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 4338 Southwest	TPA 19:16	BWI 21:53	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
F9 1538 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 20:09	BWI 22:59	18%	7%	1.3%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON