tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
F9 2684 Frontier Flight history → TPA 10:07 CLE 12:44 14% 5% 1.1% 86%
F9 1832 Frontier Flight history → TPA 13:50 CLE 16:37 20% 8% 1.5% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 5h 17m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → CLE 13:32DL 775 6h 02m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 23m Dulles IAD 12:45 → CLE 14:06UA 1709 5h 06m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545 5h 20m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:42DL 1350 7h 28m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 2189 3h 20m Chicago ORD 12:55 → CLE 15:25UA 1878 8h 00m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → TPA 08:36 → CLT 10:25AA 1704 3h 43m Charlotte CLT 14:08 → CLE 15:49AA 1244 7h 13m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → TPA 13:44 → ATL 15:23DL 1099 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 18:53 → CLE 20:45DL 2150 7h 01m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:25 → LGA 19:26DL 2106 1h 04m New York LGA 20:30 → CLE 22:35DL 4974 · flown by Endeavor 6h 06m 66% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON