Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 653 at 05:44 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 653 TPA 05:44 → CLT 07:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1974 TPA 18:10 → CLT 20:02 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 653 American	TPA 05:44	CLT 07:36	5%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2538 American Flight history →	TPA 08:50	CLT 10:43	9%	4%	0.8%	94%
AA 1704 American Flight history →	TPA 08:36	CLT 10:25	12%	4%	0.8%	91%
AA 1975 American	TPA 10:57	CLT 12:50	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 436 American Flight history →	TPA 12:59	CLT 14:51	16%	6%	0.9%	84%
AA 1982 American	TPA 16:24	CLT 18:16	23%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 2915 American Flight history →	TPA 14:55	CLT 16:46	23%	10%	1.1%	75%
AA 1974 American	TPA 18:10	CLT 20:02	25%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON