tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4156 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4156 Southwest TPA 05:41 CMH 08:07 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3731 Southwest TPA 14:41 CMH 17:06 18% 7% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522 5h 33m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750 6h 08m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 14:21 → CMH 16:03DL 2892 6h 03m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587 3h 06m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 7h 02m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 1h 12m Detroit DTW 12:20 → CMH 13:27DL 5774 · flown by Republic 4h 57m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 6h 29m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 23m Dulles IAD 12:45 → CMH 14:12UA 454 5h 12m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 20:33 → CMH 22:15DL 1501 6h 57m 98% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON