Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1679 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:25	CVG 20:42	22%	8%	0.7%	74%
F9 1381 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 18:56	CVG 21:27	23%	10%	1.1%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	5h 10m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149	4h 58m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	6h 41m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	6h 26m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119	6h 51m	99%	85%
American Details →	TPA 07:01 → DFW 08:52AA 1369	1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → CVG 14:15AA 3305	7h 14m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 19:32 → CVG 21:01DL 2248	5h 43m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	2h 52m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → CVG 15:16DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor	6h 46m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON