Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2385 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2385 TPA 06:58 → DCA 09:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 1944 TPA 18:56 → DCA 21:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2385 American Flight history →	TPA 06:58	DCA 09:31	5%	3%	0.9%	100%
WN 4161 Southwest	TPA 10:06	DCA 12:32	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1972 American	TPA 11:42	DCA 14:15	14%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 1990 American	TPA 13:30	DCA 16:01	20%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 526 Southwest	TPA 15:56	DCA 18:21	23%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 1944 American Flight history →	TPA 18:56	DCA 21:30	24%	13%	1.3%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON