Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4164 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4164 TPA 08:02 → DEN 09:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4166 TPA 18:01 → DEN 19:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4164 Southwest	TPA 08:02	DEN 09:49	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1812 United	TPA 08:07	DEN 10:20	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1113 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 06:14	DEN 08:25	10%	3%	0.8%	85%
UA 683 United Flight history →	TPA 12:29	DEN 14:42	11%	4%	0.6%	87%
WN 4165 Southwest	TPA 15:26	DEN 17:11	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 2745 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 20:20	DEN 22:29	19%	7%	0.9%	75%
UA 1076 United	TPA 16:14	DEN 18:02	24%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4166 Southwest	TPA 18:01	DEN 19:45	28%	6%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	47m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	5h 35m	85%	75%
Delta Details →	TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587	52m Atlanta	ATL 15:02 → DEN 16:09DL 493	5h 35m	81%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON