Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1369 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1369 TPA 07:01 → DFW 08:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2512 TPA 19:55 → DFW 21:48 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1369 American Flight history →	TPA 07:01	DFW 08:52	8%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 1628 American	TPA 08:54	DFW 10:44	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2516 American Flight history →	TPA 11:21	DFW 13:14	12%	4%	0.8%	77%
F9 1333 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 12:12	DFW 14:06	13%	5%	1.1%	84%
AA 1957 American	TPA 17:20	DFW 19:23	20%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 3112 American Flight history →	TPA 14:17	DFW 16:09	21%	9%	1.5%	78%
AA 2512 American Flight history →	TPA 19:55	DFW 21:48	22%	10%	1.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON