Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 808 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 808 TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1243 TPA 18:05 → DTW 20:53 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 808 Delta Flight history →	TPA 08:30	DTW 11:08	7%	2%	0.6%	93%
F9 1035 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 07:54	DTW 10:52	9%	4%	0.9%	87%
DL 2852 Delta Flight history →	TPA 10:41	DTW 13:23	10%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2587 Delta Flight history →	TPA 14:00	DTW 16:48	17%	6%	0.8%	76%
DL 1243 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:05	DTW 20:53	20%	6%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON