Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2439 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 2439 TPA 06:18 → EWR 09:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 8844 TPA 18:32 → EWR 21:23 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2439 United Flight history →	TPA 06:18	EWR 09:18	5%	2%	1.0%	96%
UA 2679 United	TPA 07:00	EWR 09:57	7%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2204 United Flight history →	TPA 09:00	EWR 11:51	11%	4%	1.0%	85%
UA 2858 United Flight history →	TPA 10:57	EWR 13:48	15%	7%	0.9%	87%
UA 1321 United Flight history →	TPA 16:29	EWR 19:33	33%	15%	0.9%	94%worse than usual
UA 1117 United	TPA 16:00	EWR 18:55	37%	18%	0.9%	no record
UA 392 United	TPA 19:13	EWR 22:12	37%	14%	1.0%	no record
DL 8844 Delta	TPA 18:32	EWR 21:23	43%	20%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON