tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 548 at 19:55, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 548 JetBlue Flight history → TPA 19:55 HPN 22:56 20% 10% 1.2% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:39 → HPN 12:21DL 2973 6h 06m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25DL 1616 7h 07m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → TPA 08:42 → ORD 10:42AA 354 1h 59m Chicago ORD 12:41 → HPN 15:59AA 4200 · flown by Envoy 7h 17m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → TPA 12:59 → CLT 14:51AA 436 3h 29m Charlotte CLT 18:20 → HPN 20:29AA 5016 · flown by PSA 7h 30m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 12:46 → HPN 16:30DL 4680 · flown by Endeavor 8h 45m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:58 → DCA 09:31AA 2385 3h 28m Washington DCA 12:59 → HPN 14:30AA 5254 · flown by PSA 7h 32m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 12:00 → HPN 14:28DL 5435 · flown by Endeavor 6h 58m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → HPN 18:03DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor 8h 03m 100% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → TPA 13:47 → SJU 16:58B6 1751 46m San Juan SJU 17:44 → HPN 21:41B6 2602 7h 54m 61% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON