Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2331 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2331 TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1576 TPA 14:00 → IAD 16:22 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2331 United Flight history →	TPA 09:00	IAD 11:22	7%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1370 United Flight history →	TPA 18:57	IAD 21:30	17%	8%	0.7%	78%
UA 1576 United Flight history →	TPA 14:00	IAD 16:22	18%	9%	0.9%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON