tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1390 Southwest TPA 05:11 IND 07:40 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 776 Southwest TPA 12:51 IND 15:20 12% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 7h 48m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 5h 06m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → IND 10:33DL 2952 4h 18m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 2189 3h 12m Chicago ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic 7h 38m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134 5h 19m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 11m Dulles IAD 12:33 → IND 14:27UA 3543 · flown by Republic 5h 27m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 17:27 → IND 19:07DL 3120 6h 33m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482 7h 09m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON