Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2475 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 2475 TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2726 TPA 15:26 → JFK 18:20 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2475 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:05	JFK 09:51	4%	2%	0.8%	94%
B6 226 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 07:20	JFK 10:12	9%	4%	1.2%	69%
DL 2042 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:12	JFK 14:03	12%	4%	0.8%	87%
DL 1520 Delta	TPA 19:56	JFK 22:47	18%	8%	1.0%	no record
B6 2726 JetBlue	TPA 15:26	JFK 18:20	29%	16%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON