tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4174 Southwest TPA 06:26 LAS 08:14 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4216 Southwest TPA 16:01 LAS 17:50 23% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:46 → HOU 07:04WN 4468 3h 37m Houston HOU 10:41 → LAS 11:50WN 2056 9h 04m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 7h 45m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 32m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491 3h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 58m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 41m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 38m Dulles IAD 13:00 → LAS 15:09UA 2156 9h 09m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475 1h 39m New York JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807 9h 56m 98% 83%
FrontierDetails → TPA 06:14 → DEN 08:25F9 1113 1h 35m Denver DEN 10:00 → LAS 11:07F9 1993 7h 53m 95% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 16:06 → PHL 19:00AA 809 48m Philadelphia PHL 19:48 → LAS 22:07AA 3005 9h 01m 69% 52%
AmericanDetails → TPA 14:17 → DFW 16:09AA 3112 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:58 → LAS 17:48AA 2864 6h 31m 68% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON