Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 539 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 539 TPA 06:45 → LGA 09:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 1762 TPA 18:42 → LGA 21:32 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 539 American Flight history →	TPA 06:45	LGA 09:45	10%	4%	1.2%	87%
DL 2723 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:30	LGA 10:15	11%	3%	1.1%	88%
DL 2531 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:07	LGA 13:59	16%	6%	1.0%	90%
AA 880 American Flight history →	TPA 12:29	LGA 15:22	24%	10%	1.0%	83%
DL 2195 Delta Flight history →	TPA 14:45	LGA 17:44	33%	14%	1.3%	70%
DL 2106 Delta Flight history →	TPA 16:25	LGA 19:26	34%	15%	1.1%	70%
DL 1762 Delta	TPA 18:42	LGA 21:32	37%	16%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON