Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2199 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2199 TPA 05:55 → MIA 07:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest MQ 4093 TPA 18:04 → MIA 19:12 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2199 American Flight history →	TPA 05:55	MIA 07:11	5%	3%	1.0%	85%
AA 1740 American Flight history →	TPA 07:00	MIA 08:10	6%	3%	0.9%	95%
AA 593 American	TPA 10:07	MIA 11:23	17%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2913 American	TPA 14:55	MIA 16:12	28%	12%	1.7%	no record
MQ 4122 Envoy	TPA 19:53	MIA 21:01	35%	11%	2.7%	no record
MQ 4093 Envoy	TPA 18:04	MIA 19:12	38%	11%	3.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON