Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2189 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2189 TPA 07:25 → ORD 09:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1779 TPA 18:00 → ORD 20:08 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2189 United Flight history →	TPA 07:25	ORD 09:35	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 354 American Flight history →	TPA 08:42	ORD 10:42	9%	4%	0.8%	92%
UA 2223 United Flight history →	TPA 12:30	ORD 14:40	18%	8%	0.6%	85%
AA 3168 American	TPA 13:43	ORD 15:53	21%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 1101 American Flight history →	TPA 19:13	ORD 21:23	24%	10%	1.1%	55%
UA 2777 United	TPA 19:33	ORD 21:42	24%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 1010 United Flight history →	TPA 16:30	ORD 18:40	27%	12%	0.7%	61%
UA 1779 United	TPA 18:00	ORD 20:08	30%	12%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON