Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: F9 1474 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day F9 1474 TPA 05:56 → PHL 08:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest AA 809 TPA 16:06 → PHL 19:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1474 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 05:56	PHL 08:53	6%	3%	1.3%	69%
F9 2538 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 09:49	PHL 12:47	12%	5%	1.1%	68%
AA 2807 American Flight history →	TPA 10:59	PHL 13:38	13%	4%	0.8%	90%
AA 1981 American	TPA 12:35	PHL 15:31	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 776 American	TPA 14:17	PHL 17:13	19%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 2672 American	TPA 18:22	PHL 21:18	23%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 809 American Flight history →	TPA 16:06	PHL 19:00	25%	9%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON