Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4814 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4814 TPA 06:21 → PHX 07:49 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1402 TPA 18:15 → PHX 19:46 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4814 Southwest	TPA 06:21	PHX 07:49	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1759 American	TPA 07:33	PHX 09:22	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2112 Southwest	TPA 19:01	PHX 20:27	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 1402 American Flight history →	TPA 18:15	PHX 19:46	22%	9%	0.8%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	TPA 05:46 → HOU 07:04WN 4468	57m Houston	HOU 08:01 → PHX 08:50WN 1744	6h 04m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744	55m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	6h 18m	92%	79%
United Details →	TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491	58m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	6h 19m	92%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON