Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 979 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 979 TPA 06:11 → PIT 08:47 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4228 TPA 16:41 → PIT 19:16 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 979 Southwest	TPA 06:11	PIT 08:47	3%	2%	1.3%	no record
MX 1331 Breeze	TPA 07:10	PIT 09:51	9%	3%	2.7%	no record
WN 4228 Southwest	TPA 16:41	PIT 19:16	25%	13%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON