Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3556 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 3556 TPA 08:26 → RDU 10:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2730 TPA 13:58 → RDU 16:10 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3556 Southwest	TPA 08:26	RDU 10:27	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1279 Delta Flight history →	TPA 09:11	RDU 11:04	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
F9 2730 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 13:58	RDU 16:10	21%	9%	1.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON