Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 05:46, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 1720 Alaska	TPA 17:10	SAN 19:00	25%	7%	1.0%	no record
WN 3074 Southwest	TPA 16:51	SAN 18:38	34%	9%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125	8h 39m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:39DL 843	8h 24m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	8h 38m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	TPA 05:46 → HOU 07:04WN 4468	57m Houston	HOU 08:01 → SAN 09:28WN 2115	6h 42m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SAN 17:15DL 924	9h 01m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:35 → SLC 09:12DL 2045	1h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	8h 33m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 12:31 → MSP 14:53DL 2301	3h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:36DL 2145	11h 05m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	1h 26m Detroit	DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:10DL 761	8h 40m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON