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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4194 at 17:06, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4194 Southwest TPA 17:06 SAT 18:46 17% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:46 → HOU 07:04WN 4468 2h 57m Houston HOU 10:01 → SAT 11:09WN 1580 6h 23m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 08m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465 6h 57m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 6h 10m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 2h 33m Detroit DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458 8h 21m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → TPA 07:01 → DFW 08:52AA 1369 3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:12 → SAT 13:32AA 2768 7h 31m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 17:22 → SAT 18:50DL 2893 7h 16m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → TPA 11:47 → IAH 13:35UA 1979 1h 10m Houston IAH 14:45 → SAT 15:56UA 2030 5h 09m 95% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON