Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1167 at 09:11, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1167 Southwest	TPA 09:11	SDF 11:28	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	5h 36m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195	5h 42m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	7h 12m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → SDF 22:04DL 2842	6h 46m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	6h 35m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → SDF 19:22DL 2831	6h 48m	99%	83%
United Details →	TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331	1h 26m Dulles	IAD 12:48 → SDF 14:37UA 3980 · flown by Mesa	5h 37m	98%	79%
United Details →	TPA 12:30 → ORD 14:40UA 2223	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic	7h 53m	95%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759	50m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → SDF 22:04DL 2842	4h 01m	74%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON