Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1090 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 1090 TPA 07:16 → SEA 10:10 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 326 TPA 18:54 → SEA 21:59 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1090 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:16	SEA 10:10	13%	3%	0.5%	88%
AS 640 Alaska Flight history →	TPA 07:08	SEA 10:13	20%	3%	0.7%	73%
AS 326 Alaska Flight history →	TPA 18:54	SEA 21:59	31%	9%	0.9%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 15m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	8h 35m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	58m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	7h 50m	91%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON