tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1712 United TPA 07:00 SFO 09:43 11% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 1957 United TPA 15:27 SFO 18:10 22% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 3h 29m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 11h 38m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 10h 20m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475 1h 24m New York JFK 11:15 → SFO 14:33DL 363 10h 28m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:31 → MSP 14:53DL 2301 3h 57m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809 11h 26m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 18m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → TPA 11:47 → IAH 13:35UA 1979 1h 55m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 8h 48m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495 10h 23m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823 10h 31m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 12:59 → CLT 14:51AA 436 50m Charlotte CLT 15:41 → SFO 18:01AA 2069 8h 02m 73% 54%
AmericanDetails → TPA 14:55 → CLT 16:46AA 2915 55m Charlotte CLT 17:41 → SFO 20:01AA 2410 8h 06m 71% 50%
UnitedDetails → TPA 12:30 → ORD 14:40UA 2223 46m Chicago ORD 15:26 → SFO 18:18UA 1334 8h 48m 68% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON