tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 578 Southwest TPA 20:06 SJU 23:15 20% 8% 0.7% no record
B6 1751 JetBlue Flight history → TPA 13:47 SJU 16:58 23% 9% 1.1% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 17m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 9h 09m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 13:44 → ATL 15:23DL 1099 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 8h 45m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → TPA 05:55 → MIA 07:11AA 2199 1h 03m Miami MIA 08:14 → SJU 10:58AA 1341 5h 03m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → TPA 11:47 → IAH 13:35UA 1979 1h 28m Houston IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701 8h 51m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → TPA 07:00 → MIA 08:10AA 1740 3h 17m Miami MIA 11:27 → SJU 14:21AA 1613 7h 21m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491 1h 21m Houston IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192 8h 27m 94% 79%
JetBlueDetails → TPA 07:38 → FLL 08:43B6 1906 1h 27m Fort Lauderdale FLL 10:10 → SJU 12:48B6 1553 5h 10m 96% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON