tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2045 Delta Flight history → TPA 06:35 SLC 09:11 6% 3% 1.2% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 2h 27m Minneapolis MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 8h 34m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 7h 55m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 20m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:31 → MSP 14:53DL 2301 3h 20m Minneapolis MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607 9h 36m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 2189 3h 10m Chicago ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955 9h 57m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653 9h 28m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423 7h 51m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475 1h 23m New York JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 9h 16m 96% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:39 → ATL 18:15DL 1720 49m Atlanta ATL 19:04 → SLC 20:55DL 660 6h 16m 69% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON