tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4197 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4197 Southwest TPA 06:16 STL 07:50 3% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3345 Southwest TPA 12:21 STL 13:56 14% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:46 → HOU 07:04WN 4468 1h 57m Houston HOU 09:01 → STL 11:13WN 2129 6h 27m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 4h 28m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 5h 47m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852 3h 22m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 7h 43m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543 7h 06m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 1h 20m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 5h 35m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 2189 1h 26m Chicago ORD 11:01 → STL 12:35UA 1044 6h 10m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587 3h 12m Detroit DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541 7h 37m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 14:45 → LGA 17:44DL 2195 1h 07m New York LGA 18:51 → STL 20:46DL 4926 · flown by Endeavor 7h 02m 70% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON