tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 331 at 10:56, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 331 Southwest TUL 10:56 AUS 12:31 6% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 1h 00m Houston IAH 07:43 → AUS 09:00UA 2376 4h 00m 94% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → AUS 11:15UA 456 5h 15m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 25m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 19m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 6h 12m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 7h 15m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 50m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 93% 82%
UnitedDetails → TUL 09:00 → IAH 10:47UA 4007 · flown by Mesa 3h 33m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:27UA 2483 6h 27m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → TUL 12:43 → DFW 14:05AA 2352 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:16 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 5h 39m 100% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON