tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2837 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2837 Southwest TUL 07:51 BNA 09:34 4% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 590 Southwest TUL 16:41 BNA 18:25 17% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 30m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → BNA 11:42UA 605 5h 42m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 5h 22m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 57m Houston IAH 07:40 → BNA 09:47UA 2174 4h 47m 93% 86%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → BNA 14:02UA 1318 7h 02m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 6h 11m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 2h 44m Chicago ORD 11:32 → BNA 13:16AA 2362 6h 41m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002 4h 56m 94% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON